Daily Forex Analysis and Predictions for Oct 26, 2009

Mode On :
Menunggu arahan bung Yoga 🙂
Juga menunggu sinyal serangan fajar dari bung andri 🙂

Risk rally stalls for the moment

Despite the crescendo of USD negativity this past week (e.g. CNBC devoted a full day’s worth of programming to the weak dollar theme), the greenback actually held up pretty well, while the JPY struggled further as the biggest loser. On the week, the USD is better against the JPY, GBP, and CAD, and slightly weaker against AUD, EUR, NZD, CHF, gold and silver. Perhaps interestingly, EUR/USD broke above the psychological resistance level of 1.5000, made little progress and looks set to close just below it for the week. Eurozone finance ministers and ECB President Trichet did their best to talk down EUR/USD, but the market paid little attention. Cable experienced a massive rejection from a break above its Ichimoku cloud on strength early this past week and looks quite vulnerable (see below). CAD went on a roller coaster ride, but ultimately fell against the buck on more strident warnings from the Bank of Canada against further strength. BOC Gov. Carney used the “I” word (intervention) and traders reacted for the time being with further short-covering in USD/CAD. We are cautious that markets will continue to heed the BOC threat, but excessive USD-short positioning there may see further gains toward the 1.09-1.10 area, where we would reconsider selling USD/CAD. The 21-day sma at 1.0550 may be the trigger higher, and a daily close above would be bullish in our view.

It’s too soon to say the risk rally is reversing, but it certainly feels as if investor euphoria has run its course. Stocks (S&P 500) lost ground on the week despite some better 3Q earnings (see below) and Treasury yields finished out the week at their highest levels since the end of summer. Still, we have no firm technical clues of a broader reversal and instead must reckon with further consolidative price action in the week ahead. However, due to extreme positioning (short USD, record long gold) a reversal could get messy in short order, so we will be on high alert for signs of a larger reversal. In addition to the weak USD and risk on/off themes, it looks like a case of increasing differentiation between economies based on the fundamental outlook. We expect the differentiation theme to continue even if a USD-positive correction should occur. In order of appeal, we would use pullbacks as multi-week buying opportunities in AUD, NZD, and CAD as mentioned above. In order of aversion, we would look to continue to sell JPY and GBP on remaining strength.

Sterling set to remain on the defensive vs. the EUR in the approach to Nov MPC

The plunge in the value of the pound following the release of shockingly poor UK Q3 GDP data (-0.4% m/m) begs the question of whether sterling can stage a turnaround in the coming sessions. Against the EUR, the outlook for the pound has been worsened by the perception that the Eurozone recovery remains on track. Friday?s releases of the German Oct IFO survey and the Eurozone Oct PMI both showed further improvement. Both Germany and France returned to growth in Q2 2009 and these numbers combined with a worse than expected contraction in the UK economy during Q2 played a significant part in depressing the value of the pound vs. the EUR through the summer. Looking ahead, the prospects for UK Q4 GDP will be supported by the VAT hike on Jan 1, 2010 which is likely to lead to some front-loading of expenditure. That said, UK economic potential will be dampened for some time by rising unemployment, higher savings rates and the reining in of fiscal stimulus. With the gap between the recovery in the Eurozone appearing to accelerate away from that in the UK and given the ongoing concerns about the UK?s appalling fiscal position the value of GBP vs the EUR is likely to remain severely weakened for some time. Forthcoming UK house price data is likely to show further stability, while lending data are also expected to confirm that conditions are less bad. The CBI distributive trades data may also show signs of an improvement in the high street activity. However, in the wake of the horrible Q3 GDP release none of these data releases are likely to be strong enough to push the risk of further QE from the BoE off the table. In the approach of the Nov 5 MPC meeting sterling is likely to trade on the defensive. A break above the EUR/GBP 0.9200 level could lead to a jump higher to the 0.9310 area.

We remain cautious with regards to the potential of such a pickup given the dreadful state of the consumer balance sheet and the awful employment landscape. Given that, by our calculations, the consumer still needs to unwind roughly $500 billion in non-real estate credit to get back to sustainable debt/income levels and that unemployment will continue to rise in the first half of 2010 right through 10% makes this sort of organic growth questionable to say the least. This is the main premise behind our view that the current rally in equities is well overdone and a sharp short-term correction is looming.

The next two weeks will paint a better picture of the current earnings landscape as we have 290 companies slated to report. As such, the price action in all markets will be beholden to the outcomes in this space. Given very strong inter-market correlations – with commodities, stocks, and yields all moving opposite to the US dollar – we could be setting up for a significant reversal in the recent trends. In other words, should earnings disappoint on the top-line, we would expect the US dollar to find a solid short-term base and see a significant pick-up in buying interest. Those likely to suffer the most on earnings disappointments are AUD and CAD as much of the near-term strength here (economic fundamental improvement notwithstanding) can be directly attributed to the euphoria in the commodities space. The gold bulls will also undoubtedly head for the exit.

Earnings still show little organic growth

With about 1/3 of S&P 500 companies having reported 3Q earnings, the picture remains eerily similar to the 2Q results. The bottom-line results (EPS) are coming in 16% above expectations while the top-line sales figures have registered marginally below conservative forecasts at -0.1%. This suggests businesses continued to drive the bottom line via cost-cutting, mainly on the employment front. We didn?t get that net -768,000 job loss in the quarter by accident. With the consumer seemingly in deleveraging mode (as per recent trends in consumer credit data) and the unemployment rate likely to be sticky above 10% well into 2010, driving organic earnings growth will be extremely difficult still. If nothing else, these rather lackluster earnings reports suggest a potential short-term top in the equity space as the price action looks to have overshot reality. Indeed the US market is now trading at a 20.5 price-to-earnings ratio ? about 17% above the long-term average valuation. Long-term fundamental difficulties notwithstanding, the USD could be poised to carve out a short-term bottom over the next week or so if this pattern on the earnings front continues to play out. The buck has seen a -95% correlation with equities thus far this year, so any reversal in risky assets should elicit a nice pop in the US dollar.

Treasury auctions again in focus

The US Treasury is scheduled to offer a record $123 billion in notes next week and the outcome of these auctions could have serious implications for the US dollar. Among these are 2-year ($44b), 5-year ($41b) and 7-year ($31b) offerings. The key metrics in terms of gauging the health of the auctions will be the bid/cover ratio, the indirect take and the market tail. The bid/cover ratio measures the amount of interest in the auction relative to the amount being offered. Thus a bid/cover of 2.7 or greater for the 2-year, 2.3 or more for the 5-year and 2.5 or above for the 7-year would be considered healthy participation. The indirect take is used as a proxy for foreign central banks, so a higher percentage suggests more foreign interest for US paper. An indirect take above 50% would be a good sign that foreigners are not shunning USD-denominated debt. Lastly, the market tail measures what yield the auction participants bid at (in other words what return they deem as compensation for their risk) relative to where the market is trading. Should the tail come in above 4 basis points (0.04%) or so, this would suggest investors are demanding more return for holding US paper than what the current market is offering. This means holding US paper is deemed more risky at the margin. So a positive tail above that 4bp threshold would be a USD negative as yields would likely spike. A large positive tail coupled with a weak bid/cover and thin indirect take would be decidedly US dollar negative. For now, however, the demand for US paper remains robust and has shown little signs of waning.

Key data and events to watch next week

The US data week begins with the little-advertised Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. Case-Shiller home prices and consumer confidence are up on Tuesday while Wednesday sees durable goods, new home sales and the usual weekly oil inventory report. The highlight of the week comes Thursday with 3Q advance GDP along with the typical jobless claims data. Personal income/spending, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index round out the week on Friday.

The Eurozone kicks off with German consumer confidence on Monday. French consumer confidence follows on Tuesday while German CPI is up on Wednesday. The Eurozone business climate indicator, Eurozone consumer confidence and German employment are on tap Thursday. Eurozone CPI and German retail sales close things out on Friday.

The UK has a light week on deck and starts with the CBI distributive trades report on Tuesday. Consumer credit and mortgage approvals are up on Thursday while consumer confidence is due Friday. The Bank of England will also release a report on the asset purchase facility on Monday and this could be market moving as well.

Japan is on the busier side for a change. Retail trade kicks off the action on Tuesday. Small business confidence, PMI manufacturing and industrial production are due Wednesday while Thursday has employment, household spending and consumer prices. Housing starts and the Bank of Japan rate meeting are up Friday.

Canada also has an important week ahead. Data is on the light side with industrial product prices on Thursday and monthly GDP on Friday. However, we also have Bank of Canada Governor Carney speaking on Monday and Finance Minister Flaherty on Tuesday. Given the recent musings with regards to concern about the Canadian dollar strength, these speeches could offer up some market moving tidbits.

The calendar down under is more lively than usual. In Australia we have PPI on Monday, CPI on Wednesday, leading indicators and new home sales on Thursday. New Zealand starts with consumer confidence on Tuesday. Business confidence, trade and the RBNZ rate decision are all due Wednesday while building permits round out the week Thursday.

Bung Yoga menyarankan SELL. Bung Andri? Udah bergerilya pagi ini blom ?

sinyal hari ini: GU Sell TP min 100 pips

buy GU 1.6300 tp 20-30point
sl 50-70pips
terserah kalian.
thx

makasih mas andrie signalnya, OP buy dulu ikut mas, ntar siang baru sell.

biasa pagi jam7-9uda profit.

Itu khusus utk serangan fajar doang, atau utk daily?

untuk 4hours.
daily blom saya itung.
tapi kalau senin ribet pkai daily.
biasa meleset.

Oke…thx for the info.

salam kenal mas andrie
mohon ilmunya utk OP subuh gimana cara hitung utk menentukan OP buy or sell?
tks
Yenny

Pagi Rekan Trader…

Rekomendasi ini sebaiknya dijadikan informasi tambahan saja, dan bukan sbg dasar utk Open Position.

Pagi ini hingga siang nanti GU diprediksikan akan naik ke level 1.6370 dan setelah itu akan down ke level 1.6230 serta berpeluang utk melanjutkan trip nya ke 1.6170 hingga malam nanti. Saya lebih prefer merekomendasikan OP SELL ketika telah menyentuh harga tsbt.

Rekomendasi OP utk hari ini 26 Oktober 2009 :

SELL GU di 1.6370 TP 1.6230 dan 1.6170 SL 1.6450

SELL EU di 1.5015 TP 1.4920 SL 1.5075

SELL GJ di 150.65 TP 148.60 SL 151.75

BUY UJ di 91.80 TP 92.70 SL 91.20

SELL AU di 0.9240 TP 0.9150 SL 0.9310

SELL LOCO di 1057.10 TP 1043.60 SL 1065.30

KHUSUS UTK TP dan SL, SEBAIKNYA GUNAKAN TP dan SL STANDAR, 50 POIN UTK TP DAN 65 POIN UTK SL…JADIKAN INI STABIL SETIAP HARI…

– JADIKAN INI SEBAGAI SECOND OPINION
– TRUST YOUR TRADING SYSTEM
– INVEST YOUR TIMES BEFORE INVEST YOUR MONEY
– DONT TAKE THE RISK IF YOU DONT WANT TO
– IF YOU WANT TO MAKE MONEY CONSISTENLY, FOLLOW THE TREND

Semoga profit. Salam sukses.

Terimakasih mas,salam profit

Hati2 rekan2,
Menurut para master (pak Yoga dan pak Geprak) hari ini GU tidak langsung down, tetapi ada koreksi up dulu baru lanjut down lagi.

gu naik dulu baru turun saya setuju dan semoga beruntung .thanks for : gs,yoga,geprak,andrie,rekans traders semua…………….

semoga analisa gs bisa dipercepat .selak ghebelet……..

sodah close buy profit 21 pips pagi-pagi, makasih banyak mas andrie, signalnya mantap bangat mas.

saya sudah profit nie.
hehehe
besok lagi ah tradingnya.
FB saya [email protected]
atau andriey darmawan, fotonya mobil ferrari
thx.

Gu Turun gunung ga karuan.
guling2 turun gunungnya.
wkwkwk

selamat yg sudah profit pagi2.
semoga kita bisa saling berbagi.
see u tomorrow

sudah saya add FB nya mas Andrie.

sudah terbukti kehebatan prediksi pak yoga …………memang luar biasa.profit besar sudah …

Saya user baru bisa dapat share prediksi pak yoga dimana ya makasih.

trader yth, sy ada posisi buy eu di 1.5045, skr lg floating, berdasarkan beberapa info bhw akan naik dikisaran 1.51xx apa ada kemungkinan seperti itu?? mhn pertimbangannya, thanks. Salam Profit….!!

Hi All, thks for the trading tips n info, much appreciated, cheers

Trims semuanya,
Jadi lebih mantap OP nya nih
Salam Greenie

Akhirnya bisa juga mobile trading pake Samsung C6625, lumayan…jadi bisa pantau dan respon harga.Tp baterenya jadi cepet habis.

Hmmm…apakah bensin GU dan EU sudah hampir habis?

bener bro,
mending HP untuk darurat aja
selain karena masalah baterai juga layar yg kecil
Kalau manteng enakan di PC atau Notebook 🙂

Harapan saya sama nih
Mudah2an EU turun ..
kalau bisa 100-200 point atau 2000 point .. hehe
soalnya saya masih pegang floating – 2000 point nih

app…paaa ??? minus 2000 poin ? ya ya ya…saya bisa memahami jg kok bro…kl dibanding anda, saya ‘cuma’ -400 lebih jumat kmrn….

rencananya saya mau bawa ‘peluru tambahan’ alias batere cadangan utk hp nih biar kl ngedrop lsg diganti

kayaknya bakal turun EU, as the masters here have spoken…

no hurt feeling ya…kl misal dgn -2000 poin itu masih oke buat anda, ya ga apa, kayaknya anda sell ya, mumpung downtrend nih…setidaknya mudah2an bisa mengurangi kerugian ya?

btw, utk samsung c6625 pake sudah install garmin gps tp mapnya gak kompatibel nih…wekekekek…piye jal?

sebenarnya gak oke juga pak,
nahan supaya gak kena MC dag dig dug terus 🙂

iya nih mudah2an turunnya lumayan
biar ntar dikit dikit di cut loss aja

saya kebetulan pake google maps sih lumayan,
blom coba pake yg lain

ak jg mau pake c6625..tp cepet habis ya batrenya?emangnya tahan brp lama?tnks b4

Kira2 4-5 jam panteng terus. Bg yg mobile, dgn adanya mobile trading bisa membantu.

This signal only for europe session

EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.4932 – 1.5088
Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.5040 SL 1.5070 TP 1.5010
Alternative : Buy at 1.5050 SL 1.5020 TP 1.5070

GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6041 – 1.6825
Trend: Dowward
Sell at 1.6283 SL 1.6313 TP 1.6191
Alternative : Buy at 1.6295 SL 1.6265 TP 1.6433

USD/JPY
Trading range: 90.94 – 92.68
Trend: Upward
Buy at 91.65 SL 91.35 TP 91.81
Alternative : Sell at 91.47 SL 91.77 TP 91.27

Thanks bung Enjay, utk UJ saya jg sependapat masih kuat uptrend. Saya udah ambil posisi buy di 91.65 dari tadi. Tadi sempat turun di 91.50an gitu, tapi naik lg nih saya lht.
Salam profit… 🙂

kelihatnya UJ akan turun ke 91.30-an, SL di 92.18

Thanks banget bung Edo, iya nih saya jg udh close buy saya. Mau siap2 OP sell, cari timing yg tepat 🙂

ehm..

saya agak melawan arus nih kliatannya.
skrg lg posisi :

op buy di 1.6302, S/L di 1.6237

ada saran dari rekan2, tq.

cut loss az…….tar jg dpt profit lg

kalau nanti turunnya ga bisa lewati 1.6245>>>1.6228 menungkinan GU akan mencoba level upnya di 1.6337
sekedar prediksi aja.

siang GS…
sinyal robot untuk hari ini buy ato sell di GU?
thx

thanks analisanya

Mau tanya, utk pemula yg newbie (udah pemula, newbie lagi :D), belajar robot GS gmn ya? Sudah baca panduannya tp ribet bgt. Parameternya byk skl. Ada nggak semacam panduan singkat sbg landasan utk memulai?

salam kenal semuanya, juga pak yoga, apa bisa bagi2 methoda trading perlu menggunakn indikator apa sj spy efektif. maklum pak, masih banyak los. thks.

selamat siang rekan Trader,,
Peluang GU untuk turun ke level 1.6245>>> 1.6228 dan berlanjut ke 1.6190 masih terbuka.
kalau harga tidak dapat menyentuh 1.6245 kemungkinan GU akan mencoba level upnya di 1.6337>>>>1.6363
salam profit

Sterling extends losses, dollar makes modest gains.

The pound extended losses on Monday after data showed the UK economy was still struggling, disappointing investors who had been paring short positions betting for an early return to growth.

The drop in the pound, along with speculation that U.S. interest rates could be headed higher sooner than expected, saw the U.S. dollar stretch some of its modest gains made late last week.

Data this week could show the U.S. economy grew more quickly than forecast in the third quarter, which could raise speculation that the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy sooner than previously thought.

“Maybe the advance GDP will help bolster the dollar, where nothing else could,” RBC currency strategist David Watt said.

“But, after the UK GDP surprise last week one has to be wary of undershooting the consensus.”

The data which is out on Thursday, is expected to show U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.3 percent in the third quarter.

The pound GBP=D4 broke past support at $1.6300 to fall to $1.6272 from $1.6313 late on Friday when it lost nearly 1.9 percent.

Traders say investors are SET TO AGGRESSIVELY SELL THE POUND on expectations that a sluggish road to recovery would prompt the Bank of England to keep rates near zero for a long period of time.

Last week, sterling enjoyed a reprieve after minutes from the Bank of England’s latest meeting stirred hopes that policy rates could be pushed up from record lows in coming months amid worries about inflation.

Net short positions in sterling fell to 43,318 contracts from a record high of 65,346 in the previous week.

Currency speculators increased their bets against the U.S. dollar in the week to Oct. 20 with the value of net short positions rising to $18.65 billion from $17.99 billion a weeak earlier.

The dollar index =USD was at 75.479, pulling away from a 14-month low of 74.94 hit on Oct. 21.

The U.S. dollar rose to 92.14 yen JPY= from 92.08 yen late on Friday in New York, with traders expecting the Japanese currency to stay on the defensive as U.S. Treasuries yields rose.

Yields on Treasuries spiked late last week ahead of record issuances this week and on speculation the Federal Reserve may change its tenor to a slightly more hawkish bias.

That view got a boost from a Financial Times article highlighting discomfort among some Fed officials with language that U.S. interest rates would remain low for an extended period.

The euro EUR= edged lower to $1.5000, having lost 0.1 percent on Friday, with selling lined up at around $1.5050/60 and bids expected to emerge at around $1.4980.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 edged lower to $0.9211 amid growing speculation on whether rates will move up by 25 or 50 basis points next month. Third-quarter producer price index (PPI) numbers are due at 0030 GMT ahead of consumer price numbers on Wednesday.

Selamat siang semuanya, ada yg bisa kasih tau, trading pake hp O2 mini(jadul), bisa pake Robot GS gak? apakah hpnya hrs di up grade? program apa yg perlu? thanx atas informasinya.

robot ga bisa , hp ga bisa di up grade

Setelah Koreksi Teknikal Dollar AS Bergerak Rebound.
Senin, 26 Oktober 2009 13.57 WIB

(Vibiznews-FX) – Perdagangan pair USD/CHF pada hari ini (26-10) Dollar AS terpantau bergerak rebound menguat terhadap Franc Swiss. Dibuka pada kisaran 1.0093 awal sesi Asia tadi pagi pair ini telah turun sekitar -32 poin atau sekitar -0.32 % dan pada saat berita ini dirilis berada pada kisaran 1.0061. Dollar AS rebound setelah sempat melemah terhadap Franc Swiss sebagai damapak dari koreksi teknikal.

Dibandingkan dengan perdagangan sesi kemarin dimana kisaran tertinggi mencapai 1.0100 dan kisaran terendah mencapai 1.0031 serta nilai penutupan (GMT) berada pada kisaran 1.0093 , maka pola grafik secara visual pada pasangan mata uang USD/CHF hari ini terpantau membentuk pola continuation menguatnya Dollar AS.

Analis Vibiz Research dari Vibiz Consulting mengemukakan bahwa ekspektasi pasar diperkirakan akan cenderung merespon positif sinyalemen rebound sektor perumahan AS. Sehingga dengan demikian hal tersebut berpotensi memperkuat Dollar AS terhadap Franc Swiss. Pair USD/CHF yang dibuka pada zona bearish ini terpantau mulai bergerak di zona bullish .

Pada perdagangan pada hari ini range normal perdagangan USD/CHF diperkirakan memiliki level support pada kisaran 1.0049 dan level resistance pada kisaran 1.0118. Pair USD/CHF diperkirakan terkonfirmasi cenderung menguat jika pergerakan melewati kisaran 1.0087.

Dan jika nilai tukar turun melewati kisaran 1.0040 terdapat potensi menurunnya harga lebih lanjut. Potensi terjadinya pola defensif dengan kecendrungan rebound dan reversal masih cukup terbuka

buy usd chf, tp 20pips stop loss 50. thx

Hari ini kayaknya memang harinya para scalper 🙁

scalper alias Pemulung Serba Guna ( Pendulang Pips )

Semula tak kira koneksi internetku yang problem om panjul, ternyata grafiknya mmg gak gerak 🙂

Saran kang Ari, TF-nya suruh ganti ke 1M kemudian di zoom 4x, pasti gerakan grafik menjadi kencang 🙂

ini kemungkinan GU mulai mencoba level upnya di 1.6337>>>1.6363>>>1.6385
kemungkinan nanti kalau terjadi koreksi arah sell akan menuju level 1.6263 setelah itu baru naik lagi.

malam pak, arah gu mau kemana ni pak?

scalper memang ue-nak…. dapat 10 – 15 pips 4 x bolak balik sell dan buy..

sambil nunggu turun gunung… sampai lembah..

Scalping itu gmn sih? Sori kl pertanyaannya newbie bgt. Konsepnya sdh agak tahu, tp prakteknya blm ngeh bener.

tes

Alhamdulillah akhirnya bisa mssuk juga, selamat sore Bung GS and teman2 trader apa kabar hari ini? newbe nich mohon pengajarannya dari para suhu semua, terima kasih.

iya nih,buat master yoga,klo mo liat prediksinya dimana ya? thanks

whuaaa..EU kok ky gni y..ad yg tau g suggest mlm ne gmn..?? bung GS ap ad news yg mnguatkn usd nnti..?

nanti malam posisi buy or sell GBP?

GU dan EU pada malu malu kucing … :d

para suhu ada tang tahu gak gu malam ini mau up or down?thank

saya op sell GU skrng min 50 pips, apa sebaiknya di cut loss saja?

Klo sy pribadi sih gakan di cut dulu,soalnya GU nya ga kuat nanjak lebih dari 1.6350,dan pasar US baru buka ..yakin turun deh heuheu

setelah GU berhasil melewati level 1.6337 kemungkinan akan berusaha ke target level 1.6363,
sekedar prediksi aja

Wah bener nih prediksi mas panjul,saya SL di 1.6375 saja kena ga ya…

kemungkinan kena karena lg coba ke level upnya di 1.6394, tapi nanti tergantung koreksinya bisa melewati 1.6335 atau tidak.

Iya mas sudah kena SL,hilang deh 1,5% gpp MM,trims ya,besok lagi aja ,letih juga dari tadi nungguin momentum dan…kalah heuheu

gagal dech ini hari terjebak di sell 1.6378 heheh e

Heuheu…kesel juga ya pak tunggu dari pagi,saya maksa sell di 1.6345 SL di 1.6375 ..kecil2an ah iseng heuheu

Yaa…SL nya kena,tidur ah gakan bener…besok lagi,salam semua..

dari news,khabarnya USD lemah berbanding Euro,dipasar China.Tapi lihat pada pasar,USD dan GP yang menguat.Bagaimana ini yang bisa terjadi…..

analisa g/j gimana pak?

dasaaaaaaar GU dtinggal tiduran malah mluncur gak bilang2….,heuheu

EU terjun bebas euyyyy

Ditungguin dari pagi…eee kejadiannya jam segini,klo bahasa sundanya”ngabongohan”…heuheu,lumayan ah kebagian buntutnya…

Master2.. Minta saran nich… GU bakal turun gunung lage ga??? Jadi serba salah mao OP …

nih GU msh turun gak ya buat para master???

semua pada nggak sabaran aja coba ikuti bung yoga pasti panen raya di EU

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